Why Green??

By Vedran Vuk
for Casey Research

What do the War on Terror, green energy, and
the high-speed rail project have in common?
They all lack clear objectives and success measurements.

These three initiatives are perfect for politicians.
When there is a clear benchmark, government gets into trouble.
For this reason, politicians more and more avoid quantifiable
projects such as unemployment, poverty, income, etc.
Or they set arbitrary benchmarks.
For example, universal healthcare aims to insure the entire population.
I have no doubt that the government can insure everyone.
However, I have very strong reservations about long-term
affordability and quality.
Of course, the Democrats realize this too.
That’s why they focused on the number
of uninsured rather than price and quality.
They know that they will fail on price and quality.

The wars in the Middle East are also unquantifiable goals.
Are we winning or losing in Iraq and Afghanistan?
It’s impossible to say.
At best, one can have an educated opinion, but an objective
statement eludes both sides of the issue.
Occasionally, the government attempts to quantify success
by demonstrating lower casualty rates.
But even these statistics are worthless and deceptive.
Victory more often than not comes with higher casualties – not fewer.
Further, it’s impossible to say with certainty whether there would be
more or less terrorist attacks without the wars.

Sooner or later, we’ll have to exit the Middle East.
However, the unquantifiable century-long goal will be green energy
and the green movement.
Will green energy ever be more profitable than oil, coal, and gas?
Let me put it this way:
Green energy is little more than modern-day alchemy.
Today, oil is the gold, and the wind farm is the lead.
There are plenty of good uses for lead,
but ultimately it will never become gold.

Because environmental goals cannot be quantified,
the government will keep pushing them for eternity.
There’s no way to account for cleaner
air in a cost/benefit analysis – that’s why the government loves green.
Just ask yourself, what should society pay for 10% cleaner air?
You could pick any number. No matter the outcome,
the government can always claim success.
Those pesky cost/benefit approaches won’t bother them here.

Emissions are already following this model.
Goals are set to reduce emissions by arbitrary percentages,
but the quantifiable benefits are never revealed.
Further, the percentages themselves appear to be arbitrarily
picked out of thin air. Though the benefits are unaccountable,
the government can keep claiming that it’s “saving the planet.”
What does it actually mean to cut emissions by, say, 30%?
Where’s the benefit outside the catch phrases of a
“cleaner and greener world”? The benefits are always left vague,
generalized, and idealized with a touch of apocalyptic overtone.

The new high-speed rail project campaigns focus on the
environmental benefits and the improved livability of communities.
$8 billion is being spent on these projects around the country,
with $2.25 billion for California alone.
How does one calculate success in creating a “livable community”?
Ultimately, “livable” is a subjective term. And that’s exactly why the
government has adopted this as a goal.
Even if the project is a complete money pit,
they can always claim to have created more “livable” neighborhoods.

Then there’s the green angle that promises to reduce pollution.
Sure, maybe the air will be a bit cleaner. But is this worth $8 billion?
Once again, it’s impossible to say – and that’s the whole point.

If society actually valued high-speed rail, a system would have been
constructed long ago. When consumers demand a product,
entrepreneurs will be more than happy to provide it.
If the costs are greater than the consumers’ willingness to pay,
then the project will fail or will never even start.
The very fact that a private high-speed rail does not exist says
everything that you need to know about the cost/benefit analysis here.
Only unquantifiable goals can justify the project.
Hence, these are the goals centerstage.

But don’t worry. The high-speed rail will be a success –
just like the Iraq war, just like green energy, and just like
universal healthcare.
When there are no quantifiable goals and only arbitrary benchmarks,
every government project is a winner.